Stainless Demand Forecast until 2012 |
|
| Growth in steel sector |
 |
| 2006 |
China |
India |
World |
| Population |
1.3 |
1.1 |
6.5 |
| GDP,bn USD |
2688 |
904 |
47500 |
| Per Capital GDP, USD |
2024 |
830 |
7300 |
| Per Capital Steel Cons.kg |
-300 |
-35 |
190 | |
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Major Factors for Growth in Steel Industry
|
Indian Automobile Industry.
Size 34 billion USD in 2006.
Growing at CAGR of 14% in the last five years.
|
- 2 nd Largest two wheeler market in the world.
- 4 th largest commercial vehicle market in the word.
- 11 th largest passenger car market in the world.
|
|
Total sales of vehicles-9 million in 2005-06.
10 million production in the first 11 months of the CY 2006. |
- Government's announcement to cut excise duty on small car ? India emerging as the world's largest manufacturing hub for small or compact cars.
- Expected to grow at 13% p.a over the next decade to reach around USD 120- 160 bn by 2016.
- Total investments required to support the growth is estimated at around USD 35 ?40 bn
|
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OUT LOOK ON INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY
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- Total sale of Vehicle has reached 10.1 million in 2006-07.
- Sales of passenger vehicle have reached 13.80 lacs showing an increase of 20% over last year.
- Sales of commercial vehicle have reached 467882 numbers. Focused growth in HCV and LCV segment. Supreme court judgment ofNov-2005 against overloading of trucks is likely to increase demand for Cv?s.
- Growth is also due to improvement in road infrastructure over the last few years.
- Two wheeler sales have gone up to 7.9 million numbers.
- Huge investments by all global auto giants in India. India becoming a global hub for automobile manufacturing and a sourcing hub for automobile components. 30, 000 crores investment have already been announced by major automobile majors. Continued growth in foreign direct investment likely to reach 8 billion $ by 2015.
- Healthy growth of 17 % shown by Indian automobile industry is likely to continue and the growth trajectory will be upward. Turn over likely to touch 150 billion $ by 2010.
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CATEGORY (A) : CARBON STEEL
|
|
| Time Changes over the years |
- In 1985, India produced 11.9m tones.
- In 2006, India produced about 44m tones.
- In 1985, Global steel output 718.9m tones.
- In 2006, Global production 1.24bn.
- India increased its global market share from 1.65% in 1985 to 3.5 % in 2006.
- In 1985, China steel output 46.8m tones.
- In 2006, China produced 422m.
- China?s global market share from 6.5 per cent 21 years ago to now that it makes more than one third of all the steel produced in the world.
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Domestic alloy and special steel sale
|
- Alloy Steel and Special Steel.
- Their has been increase in demand for special and alloy steel due to increase in consumption level of automobile sector and automobile component industry.
- Globalization has come to stay and we cannot wish it away. Every body is eyeing the opportunity in India due to the consistent economic performance and upward trajectory of growth rate recorded by manufacturing sector (11 %) with an average GDP growth rate of 9 % for the last 2 years.
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Steel Demand Projection for 11 th plan (Preliminary Estimates) |
| Item |
2005-06 |
2007-08 |
2011-12 |
| Carbon Steel |
38.2 |
48.33 |
67.01 |
| Alloy and special steel |
2.27 |
2.85- 2.9 |
3.5-4.0 |
| Stainless steel |
1 |
1.25 |
1.75 | |
Estimates are based on 8.5% GDP growth for all the years and the observed relation between GDP and steel demand . No major structural change in the economy considered.
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